Tag Archives: Trading Floor

New Forex Strategy To Strengthen Portfolios And Reduce Volatility

Trading Floor has unveiled a new Forex Portfolio Model created by Saxo Bank’s strategy team. The Portfolio model offers a way to reduce total portfolio volatility in the wake of the stock market rally that saw many investors turn away from Forex trading.

“Many investors are staying out of the Forex market – either because they lost money and have given up, or because they simply don’t know where to put their money,” said David Karsbøl, Chief Economist at Saxo Bank and Trading Floor commentator. “The Saxo Bank Forex Portfolio Model is a way of re-activating this idle money by applying them in a low-cost and relatively low risk fashion.”

The portfolio model is based on the Saxo Bank Fundamental Indices that measure the underlying economic strength (contraction or expansion) of 10 currencies: NZD, AUD, CAD, JPY, EUR, GBP, USD, CHF, SEK, and NOK. This should give a theoretical 45 possible currency crosses, but the model subtracts the12 most illiquid and expensive to trade and looks at 33.

The allocation signals are generated by the spreads in the fundamental indices and the idea is to always allocate more capital to the currencies with a relatively strong economic activity (and positive rate outlook) and fund the positions by going short on the currencies with weak economic activity (weak rate outlook).

The model allocates capital after changes in the spreads between the fundamental indices. For example, if the Eurozone Fundamental Index suddenly drops relative to the US Fundamental Index, the model (everything else being equal) would reduce exposure to EURUSD. Additionally, positions are scaled up or down according to the volatility of the currency crosses in question so that the expected risk-adjusted return for positions in EURCHF is the same as for positions in EURCAD.

“The model is always well diversified and is always in the market,” said David Karsbøl. “It is therefore not exposed to timing issues.”

The model doesn’t use stops, since the overall volatility of returns tends to be low (especially on single leverage). One particularly interesting feature is that returns tend to be almost completely uncorrelated to returns in stock markets (correlation = 0.1) and other risky asset classes (correlation to the CRB Index is 0.11).

In back testing since 1991, the model has produced annual returns of 5.34% using single leverage, 10.58% using double leverage and 15.67% with triple leverage.

“Therefore, if the back-testing is indicative of future returns, it would make a lot of sense to use part of one’s portfolio to allocate to the FX Model and thereby decreasing overall portfolio volatility without lowering returns too much or at all, depending on the leverage used.”

Via EPR Network
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Positive Economy Growth For Late 2009 Predicted by Trading Floor Expert

Trading Floor columnist and Saxo Bank chief economist David Karsbol says the American economy will return to positive GDP growth in the second half of 2009; however, the reliance of the recovery on government spending and inventory re-stocking may mean the growth is not sustainable.

Karsbol says consumer deleveraging will continue and demand will remain subdued. US unemployment will continue to rise over the coming months, further hindering debt repayments and consumption.

Saxo Bank’s fourth quarterly financial outlook for 2009 is available for download on the Trading Floor site, which has been running since May 2009. Trading Floor gives daily and quarterly outlook and trading analysis of Forex, Equities, FX options, CFD trading, and commodities.

The Saxo Bank quarterly report is put together by the bank’s strategy team of chief economist David Karsbol, chief equity strategist Christian Blaabjerg, consulting FX strategist John Hardy and market strategist Mads Koefoed.

The quarterly outlook predicts that monetary stimuli and government deficits are likely to continue, leading to a ‘Japanisation’ of financial markets – higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on both corporate bonds and treasuries.

Karsbol added: “Because Western economies are more flexible and able to embrace the necessary changes, we do not think that things will get as bad as was the case in Japan.

“However, it is increasingly evident that the current scenario in the West bears a close resemblance to post-1990 Japan, and it looks progressively like we have entered a new regime in which everyone assumes that large companies will be bailed out. This means that default risk is ‘priced out’, and we see higher price-to-earnings ratios and lower yields on fixed income.”

With maximum stimulus in the rear view mirror and austerity and exit strategies increasingly on the menu, Forex trading as a whole may begin to shift away from the rosier recovery projection that is already priced in. This could likely mean the exhaustion of many of the trends that are currently in place in FX, where so many trades are aligned along the ubiquitous risk appetite axis.

Via EPR Network
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Trading Floor To Open Up Trading Information For Forex And Equities

Saxo Bank, the online trading and investment specialist, is addressing the problem of market information overload with its TradeMaker module to complement its trading platforms, as well as a new Trading floor website.

Trading Floor

The information barriers of the past that limited trading to professional traders with a Bloomberg or a Reuter’s screen have long gone. The quantity of trading information and Forex news available to all types of traders on a home or business PC has increased to such an extent that now it is possible to trade not only stocks, but also Forex and more exotic instruments such as Futures and CFDs.

But while speed is vital when making trading decisions, speed without solid strategic insight won’t bring any advantages. The main problem is that as the cost of information has fallen, the volume has increased accordingly. Trying to find a way through this jungle of FX crosses, quotes and trades is sometimes a challenge even for the most experienced trader.

TradeMaker is a real-time trading idea generator that is part of Saxo Bank’s award winning trading platforms. It provides ten daily intra-day trading ideas on major currency crosses and CFDs including intuitive charts and interface, as well as one click pre-populated trade tickets or the ability to tailor the idea to personal trading strategies.

“Using the information and services provided by TradeMaker, we hope to be encouraging those traders that are looking to enter the market but need more direction,” said Patrick Mortensen, Global Head of Partner Marketing at Saxo Bank.

“We have already received feedback that tells us users actually feel more secure in their trading decisions, as TradeMaker enables them to better identify and manage the risks involved in the market,” said Patrick Mortensen.

The advent of the electronic trading platform has brought an end to the ‘open outcry’ of busy, noisy trading floors. As traders have retreated behind desks and screens, the shouting, signaling and pulling faces have disappeared. And with it has gone some of the human interaction that helped inform the markets.

Trading Floor is an attempt by Saxo Bank to bring some of that noise back by getting the markets rubbing shoulders, dealing – and shouting. Trading Floor provides up to date, forex news and market place analysis.

The aim of the new Tradingfloor site is to bring market participants together through the web site. Saxo Bank provides the web site and the expertise of its strategists and analysts and those of its partners.

The Daily Trading Stance is the mainstay of Tradingfloor’s daily offering. It is the position that Saxo bank’s own strategists distribute to traders with a rundown of the main themes of the day in FX, equities, futures, and FX options.

The commentary is prepared by Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist David Karsbøl and Saxo Bank’s Equity Strategist Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg, with additional advice from Forex expert John hardy, who was named as one of the most influential people in Forex in 2008. Commodities expertise is provided by Ole S Hansen and Alan Plaughmann. Tradingfloor.com also has its own YouTube Trading Floor channel which is updated daily with the day’s trading information and delivered by David or Christian.

The speed of trading has picked up tremendously in recent years with the use of automated and semi-automated systems. But the systems are only as good as the information they receive. The key to success in online trading is to find reliable sources of solid tradable information.

About Trading Floor:
Trading Floor is run by Saxo Bank – a global investment bank specialising in online trading and investment across the international financial markets. Trading Floor provides up to date forex news and market place analysis.

Via EPR Network
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