Saxo Bank, the online trading specialist, has released a new Asia Focus Video which features Andrew Robinson, Forex Analyst for Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore, analysing the People’s Bank of China’s decision to lower its reserve requirement ratio, whether it’s a taste of more cuts to come and how much it is a clear signal that the world’s second-largest economy is really slowing after all.

The unexpected People’s Bank of China’s announcement that it will lower its reserve requirement ratio on December 5, representing the first cut in three years, initially surprised markets and started a risk-on sentiment, particularly in equities and incited market hunger for more monetary easing.

As such, reserve requirement ratio cuts rarely come in isolation and more are likely soon, probably as early as next month, confirmed Andrew Robinson, FX Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets. He said the timing of this easing has to do with the flow of data of late which has pointed to a slowing in the economy and that it was acknowledgement of this situation. Furthermore it pre-empted the latest purchasing manager index data which confirmed a contraction scenario for the economy.

Commenting on the recent data from China, Andrew said: “Last month’s data was looking particularly soft and the expectations for this month are not particularly encouraging. If we look at the data that’s been coming out recently, it’s certainly suggesting that the market is slowing down.

“I think this is a pre-emptive move by the PBOC and they’re looking to continue it and build the economy.”

The focus in the coming days will now shift to inflation data with more declines in the consumer price index and an even greater drop in the purchasing prices index seen. Combined, this confirmation of a softening in price pressure effectively removes a hurdle the People’s Bank of China was facing in terms of the freedom to continue to ease monetary policy.

The video can be viewed at http://www.tradingfloor.com/blogs/macro-ad-hoc/more-chinese-easing-as-price-pressure-abates-removing-pboc-hurdle-1126984016, with many other forex videos available on the Saxo Bank site.

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Saxo Bank has released new Asian Focus video featuring Andrew Robinson, correspondent for Saxo Capital Markets, analysing the effect of the Bank of Japan’s latest yen intervention and the sustainability of further actions before year end. He also commented on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut rates, the first flow of PMI data in Asia and the noise surrounding the Chinese leader’s visit to Europe this week.

Japan’s Finance Minister Jun Azumi put his money where his mouth was with unilateral intervention to weaken the yen. This is the third intervention this year with estimates suggesting it is the largest one of the three. So far it has had the intended effect with the USDJPY holding at around the 78.0 level. History however shows that it could be a longer term struggle to keep it there as after the previous two interventions this year it took only about five days for the rate to drop back to pre-intervention levels. Concerning other action it is unlikely the Bank of Japan will instigate other measures like a trading floor for the pair, similar to the Swiss National Bank’s action, Andrew said.

The timing of the intervention ahead of the Group of 20 leaders initially took the market by surprise but in hindsight as Finance Minister Azumi had in recent weeks spoken almost daily about the problem of the strong yen it was ultimately only a matter of time before the Bank of Japan took action.

Meanwhile the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the official interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since April 2009. Whether this is the beginning of a whole series of cuts or just a one-of is another story though and will depend largely on the development of the local economy and the degree of uncertainty globally. How effective the passing on of the cut by commercial banks to consumers will be on their spending behaviour will also remain to be seen.

Monthly Purchasing Managers Index data in the Asian region paints a mixed picture about the health of the manufacturing sectors with most attention on China and somewhat different stories being told by the official Chinese data and private sector equivalent report.

China is also drawing attention from its leader Hu Jintao’s visit to Europe during the lead up to the G-20 summit. Expectations are increasing that China will commit to supporting the European Financial Stability Facility but any announcement is hardly likely to occur before the G-20 meeting.

Further information and additional forex videos can be found at videos.saxobank.com.

Via EPR Network
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