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Business Monitor International Highlights Myanmar’s Most Promising Investment Sectors

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released the latest special report “Myanmar Awakens: Unearthing Asia’s Hidden Gem” analysing Myanmar’s recent rapprochement with the West and its promising signs of political and economic liberalisation.

The recent by-election results appear to mark a watershed moment in the country’s recent reform drive, with positive implications for both the political system and the state’s improving relationship with the international community. The impact on Myanmar’s investment prospects will be closely watched, with investors particularly interested in whether or not EU and US economic sanctions will be lifted. According to BMI, Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) has a history of poor market accessibility and many hope that the country will now emulate the success of countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, fuelled by hopes that the country is finally emerging from decades of isolation to join the ranks of Asia’s economic powerhouses.

While a timetable is still hard to pin down, sanctions are expected to be drawn down incrementally over the course of the coming year. The report recognises key political and geopolitical factors that will drive or constrain Myanmar’s reforms for the changing nation and identify the challenges faced by investors as a result of Myanmar’s business environment.

“Myanmar Awakens: Unearthing Asia’s Hidden Gem” assesses the ‘new era’ in sight and as seen in other resource-rich frontier markets, BMI expects a number of key sectors to dominate investor attention in the short to long term, should there be a relaxation of the US and EU economic sanctions.

BMI’s portfolio of products provides comprehensive analysis across emerging market economies and enables global investors, emerging market strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to assess and evaluate global political and economic risks and aid strategic planning activities over the short, medium and long term.

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Business Monitor International Highlights The Risks Of Turkey’s Tough Stance Towards Israel

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released the latest special report, “Turkey: A Decisive Break from the West?” analysing Turkey’s profound transformation as it adopts an increasingly assertive role in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean.

With Turkey’s position as one the world’s most strategically important countries and a major emerging economy, its evolving political dynamics are of global importance. A shift in Turkey’s foreign policy and a move towards authoritarian rule is strainings its relationship with Israel and could, potentially, damage those with its NATO allies at a time when the attraction of EU membership – a cornerstone of government policy for close to a decade – is clearly waning. According to BMI, Turkey’s tough stance towards Israel is clearly aimed at winning support from Arab countries as the country’s leadership looks to establish its position as a key player in the Middle East. Although Turkey is unlikely to leave NATO, it will increasingly be viewed as an unreliable ally in European capitals.

On a global basis BMI recognises Turkey as best-positioned among the non-BRICemerging market economies to become a major power over the coming years, thanks to its large economy, population, and military, growing ties with the Middle East and Russia, and its critical strategic location between continents. The report analyses potential strategic partnerships of the future if Turkey was to move away from its traditional Western allies and compete more directly with Iran and Egypt.

Moreover, “Turkey: A Decisive Break From The West?” assesses the impact of a new foreign policy on already strained relationship with the European Union and the probability of Turkey’s potential EU accession in context of Ankara’s attempts to nurture greater political and economic influence in the Middle East and irreconcilable relationship with Cyprus.

BMI’s portfolio of products provides comprehensive analysis across Turkey’s industries and enables global investors, emerging market strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to assess and evaluate global political and economic risks and aid strategic planning activities over the short, medium and long term.

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Business Monitor International Analyses Russia’s Record-Breaking Year Of Oil Production

Business Monitor International (BMI) has published its latest Russia Oil & Gas Report, which highlights the record-breaking year of oil production. Following a post-Soviet oil output high of 10.3mn barrels per day (b/d) in September 2011, Russia maintained its position ahead of Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer. Although oil production has risen rapidly in recent years, BMI evaluates whether Russia will be able to surpass the 11mn b/d mark any time soon.

According to BMI, Russia will remain the world’s largest gas exporter for the foreseeable future, but an increasing share of production will have to come from outside the country’s traditional gas heartland of West Siberia, with output from new fields offsetting declining volumes from existing areas.

The report provides key forecasts and in-depth analysis of the Russia oil and gas market including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends, prospects and projects, oil and gas infrastructure and changes in the regulatory environment. It also features a competitive landscape of the oil and gas sector focusing on key national and multinational companies in Russia.

Although Russia will continue to dominate oil supply in the region, backed by huge and under-exploited reserves, BMI expects Caspian states to increase their contribution significantly. The acceleration of new production capacity offshore Azerbaijan and, especially, Kazakhstan will cement the region’s importance to efforts to expand global oil output to meet rising demand from Emerging States.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global oil and gas industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and investors to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International Warns Of China’s Economic Slowdown

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released the latest special report, “China 2012: From Miracle To Meltdown” outlining a case for a severe growth collapse in China driven by declining money supply growth rate, accelerating inflation and external slowdown with a threat of a double dip recession in the US.

According to BMI, the bearish outlook for China’s economy is more credible now than at any point in recent history. With China’s housing market exhibiting characteristics typically seen at the end of a bubble, a steep drop in house prices as developers offload inventory would pose a risk of a cash crunch to businesses operating in China, especially property developers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). As the repayment capacity of loans given to local government investment vehicles increasingly comes under threat, BMI also expects a pronounced correction in investment spending and instability in China’s banking sector.

From banking sector exposure and weak fiscal and monetary position, the report also focuses on China’s consumer market and its ability to shoulder the burden of growth should Chinese export growth fall due to a weakening US dollar and lower import demand from the US and Europe.

Moreover “China 2012: From Miracle to Meltdown” assesses the impact of a Chinese hard landing on the regional economy. While no country would be immune from a Chinese hard landing, BMI argues that Australia is most precariously positioned to suffer the consequences of this severe economic slowdown. A Chinese hard landing would push the Australian economy over the edge, likely ushering in a recession and potentially triggering a financial crisis.

Given the importance of China to the global economy, the report enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to identify business growth opportunities, avoid market risks and aid strategic planning activities over the short, medium and long term.

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Business Monitor International Launches A Brand New Nordics Power Report

Business Monitor International (BMI) has introduced to its portfolio a brand new Nordics Power Report, covering Denmark, Finland and Sweden. This addition adds depth to BMI’s global power market views, and its analysis of the European power sector.

The Nordic countries covered in the report are mature electricity markets and, according to BMI’s forecasts, they will experience modest growth both in terms of generation and capacity over the forecast period (2011-2015). Considering that electricity demand is forecast to see only limited growth between now and 2020, the main priority for Denmark, Finland and Sweden is to replace ageing plants with additional cleaner generation capacity.

The Report provides key forecasts and in-depth analysis of the Nordic power market, including electricity generation, consumption, trade, power generation costs and transmission. The industry forecasts for gas, coal, oil, nuclear, hydro and renewable are supported by BMI assumptions and analysis of key risks to BMI core scenario. Within this, the report analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent industry developments and the background macroeconomic outlook. It also features a competitive landscape of the Nordic power markets comparing multinational and national operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Electricity consumption and generation in Denmark, Finland and Sweden is expected to grow only moderately in the coming years. However, weak demographic dynamics and slow economic recovery as the result of government programmes are expected to impact power markets across Europe. BMI holds a similar outlook for Central and Eastern Europe with the exception of the Turkey power sector, which we expect to exhibit strong growth, driven by a sharp rise in its power consumption over the coming years.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global power industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and equity investors to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International report highlights the risks of a double-dip recession

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released its latest special report, “Market Meltdown: Global Economy On The Edge” evaluating the major risks to the world economy arising from the recent slump in global stock prices and rise in vulnerable government bond yields.

With the Eurozone affected by the on-going sovereign debt crises, the US faced with debt concerns after losing its AAA credit rating, and Japan still suffering from the consequences of March’s earthquake, the global economy is threatened by a risk of another recession.

On August 5 2011, Standard & Poor’s (S&P) lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating for the United States to AA+ from AAA, while maintaining a negative outlook. Prior to S&P’s announcement, poor Q211 GDP data and revisions to the GDP series going back to 2010 had a significant impact on the US economic outlook. The report focuses on the recent market developments, outlines revisions to BMI’s US growth forecasts and provides insight into the US ratings downgrade. Furthermore it examines a possibility of a double-dip recession in the US.

BMI also analyses the implications of the Eurozone debt crisis for European politics, financial market strategies and the European banking sector. Considering market scepticism over the sustainability of the Eurozone, the current crises represent the biggest test for European institutions since the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, and one with far graver economic implications.

Moreover, “Market Meltdown: Global Economy On The Edge” assesses the contagion risks of the eurozone and US crises for Asia; from banking sector exposure, the stress on states with weak fiscal positions, and the impact on China’s economy and the rest of the region should global trade flows be disrupted by a weakening US dollar, or lower import demand from the US and Europe.

BMI’s unique combination of global macro-economic forecasting, industry knowledge and long track-record of emerging markets forecasting enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to identify key market opportunities and avoid market risks wherever they operate.

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Business Monitor International Releases the Latest Analysis of Japan’s Post-Crisis Economy

Business Monitor International (BMI) has released its latest special report, “Japan After The Quake: Resurgence Or Another Lost Decade?” examining the state of Japan’s economy and exploring the risks and potential areas of outperformance across six industries covering retail, agribusiness, IT, automotives, commercial banking and power.

The report outlines BMI’s views on Japan’s recovery and the future prospects of the Japanese economy, focusing on the longer-term implications of the disaster.

While it has been encouraging how quickly the economic downturn has stabilised, Japanese consumers are unlikely to start spending again soon. BMI expects that the Japanese consumer to place a greater emphasis on price over quality. The reconstruction efforts will divert capital resources away from other sectors of the economy, and a slowdown in China will impact the export sector.

Further, the March earthquake and tsunami has had a major impact on Japan’s ICT and retail industries, with the ICT sector struggling especially to resume full operations on the back of supply chain disruptions and power shortages. Faced with a precarious domestic outlook, ICT firms will, instead, turn to growing emerging market demand to boost their revenues, a strategy that is also being pursued by the Japan autos sector with varying success.

That said, other sectors are better poised to capitalise on the “back-to-basics” spending of consumers with major convenience store retailers outperforming in this challenging environment. While March’s retail sales growth fell to its worst level since 1998, retail sales in recent months have bounced back, underlining a recovering demand outlook for Japanese retailers.

More broadly, the longer-term economic outlook remains fraught with risk, with Japan staring at another lost decade of economic stagnation. Indeed, BMI predicts that consensus expectations for Japan’s GDP growth of 2.9% in 2012 are too optimistic.

BMI’s portfolio of products provides comprehensive analysis across Japan’s industries and enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to assess and evaluate how far Japan has come since the crisis in terms of economic stabilisation and industry consolidation.

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Business Monitor International Predicts Slower Growth In The Angola Construction Industry

Business Monitor International (BMI) forecasts an annual average growth of 8.3% y-o-y between 2011 and 2015 in the construction sector, which will be slightly reduced from the previous high rate.

Angola has experienced a post-civil war reconstruction boom, aided by the spending of oil revenues and large credit lines. The infrastructure sector benefited from the rapid pace of growth in the construction industry. Although sky-high property prices and vast oil wealth have seen the Angolan capital Luanda dubbed the “new Dubai”, new data for Angola’s construction industry illustrates downside risks that expect to slow the future growth of the infrastructure market.

The Angola Infrastructure Report provides an overview of all the major areas of the infrastructure sector including building materials, transport infrastructure, construction industry and utilities. It also features BMI’s market assessment and 5-year forecasts to end-2015 covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development.

BMI previously highlighted the pertinent threats posed by political risk across a number of African nations. The violent unrest and political instability seen in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire has underlined the importance of policy continuity for investment into the Africa infrastructure markets.

BMI’s portfolio of products and services provides comprehensive analysis of the global infrastructure industry and enables industry professionals, strategists, sector analysts and investors to evaluate and manage the risks arising in the infrastructure markets.

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Business Monitor International Reveals Report On Dry-Bulk Shipping Sector

Business Monitor International has announced the launch of its special report on the dry-bulk shipping sector called ‘Dry-Bulk Shipping in Troubled Waters as Glut of Vessels Soaks up Demand’.

The shipping industry analysis report provides an in-depth overview of the challenges that the global dry-bulk shipping sector faces in 2011, with a particular focus on the sector’s ability to tackle its current overcapacity crisis.

The dry-bulk shipping sector’s woes are expected to continue for some time to come, as dropping rate have already lead to Korea Line Corp filing for receivership, and there could be more victims if lines do not reduce capacity.

BMI’s special report on the global dry-bulk shipping industry provides industry professionals with independent analysis into the sector. The report assists in identifying the opportunities and threats to businesses, whether they are a dry ship operator/owner, a dry-bulk terminal operator, a shipyard, a commodity producer/importer/exporter, a logistic firm, a consultancy or an investment bank with an interest in the sector.

BMI believes that despite growing imports of dry-bulk commodities, supply will continue to outbalance demand in the dry-bulk sector for some time to come. BMI expects overcapacity to remain the major concern for the dry-bulk sector over the medium term.

In supply terms, the outlook for dry-bulk is positive. In terms of commodities markets, Brazil and Australia continue to dominate the iron ore production, while global production of grains is expected to increase around 4% year-on-year (in particular, US corn, South American soya bean, Australian barley).

However – despite growing imports, supply will continue to outbalance demand. Global dry-bulk capacity will expand 14% this year, far outpacing a 6% rise in demand, China COSCO, China’s largest shipping conglomerate, has said.

The current global dry-bulk fleet stands at 7,957 vessels, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. There are 2,749 vessels on order, up 2,466 y-o-y, representing 34.5% of the current fleet. Of these, 1,555, about 20% of the current fleet, are due online in 2011. Given the current supply demand imbalance, this orderbook is certainly a cause for concern.

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Business Monitor International Launches Latest Report in India

Business Monitor International (BMI) has announced the launch of its latest report on India’s Information Technology industry.

The report includes BMI’s market assessment and independent 5 forecast to end 2015, covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions.

The India analysis report also analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing multinational and national IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.

BMI’s India Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in India. The report is vital for all these groups to benchmark BMI’s independent 5-year IT industry forecasts to test other views – a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the India IT market. It is also vital because it allows them to target business opportunities and risks in India’s IT sector through reviews of latest Information Technology trends regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in India. Finally, it allows these groups to assess the activities, strategy and market position of competitors, partners and clients via Company Profiles, including KPIs and latest activity.

In 2011, India’s potentially vast IT market should consolidate its strong performance in 2010 thanks to an improving economy and consumer sentiment. Computer shipments were up by around 30% in 2010 compared with 2009, and although growth is expected to moderate in 2011 due to base effects, it should remain comfortably in double-digits.

Less than 3% of people in India own a computer (about one-fifth of the level in China), meaning particular potential in the lower end product range. However, realisation of this long-term growth potential depends on fundamental drivers such as raising India’s low computer penetration, rising incomes, falling computer prices and the government’s ambitions to connect the vast rural areas to the outside world.

However, the key threat to the Indian IT sector is the global economic slowdown and rising costs that will impact on consumer and business sentiment.

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Business Monitor International Launches Report on China’s Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Industry

Business Monitor International (BMI) has announced its latest report, China Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report.

The healthcare and pharmaceutical analysis includes Business Monitor International’s five and ten year forecast for drugs and healthcare expenditure, imports and exports, and focuses on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments. The forecasts are based on in depth analysis into industry trends and new developments.

The China Analysis report is designed to provide industry professionals, market investors and corporate and financial services analysts with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare industry. The report is vital to these groups so that they can benchmark BMI’s independent five and ten year pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts on Chine, target business opportunities and risks in the Chinese pharmaceutical and healthcare sector and asses the activities, strategy and market position of pharmaceutical competitors, partners and clients.

Following the outcome of Q1 2011, BMI now predicts China will become the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Asia Pacific within the next five years. China has the world´s most attractive emerging pharmaceutical market. Driven by a booming economy and underpinned by political stability, demand for medicines, both generic and patented, will continue to increase. However – the key downside risk is further pricing pressures, which could intensify in the event of an economic slowdown.

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